표 2 영화확산에 대한 Mixed-effects Bass Model 추정결과

Model-1 (Bass) Model-2 (without error in p&q) Model-3 (Mixed-effects Bass)
계수추정치, z(p-값) 계수추정치, z(p-값) 계수추정치, z(p-값)
혁신 계수 p0 0.320, 57.59(<0.001) 0.029, 2.07(0.038) 0.384, 23.12(<0.001)
개봉첫주 0.202, 15.72(<0.001) 0.0110, 1.82(0.069)
스크린수 2.06e-5, 16.19(<0.001) 7.36e-6, 5.07(<0.001)
모방 계수 q0 0.251, 12.44(<0.001) 0.476, 18.30(<0.001) 0.284, 12.95(<0.001)
리뷰수 3.49e-4, 11.77(<0.001) 3.29e-4, 23.05(<0.001)
평점 –0.0479, –3.44(0.001) 3.19e-2, 3.98(<0.001)
RE σ u p 2 0.0180
σ u q 2 0.0329
σ 2 9.90e10 5.86e10 2.86e9
모형 적합성 MAPE 6.586% 6.265% 1.110%
AIC 32,920.71 32,315.38 29,500.54
BIC 32,935.90 32,350.82 29,546.11
LR v.s. Model-1 χ d f = 4 2 = 613.33 ( < 0.001 ) χ d f = 6 2 = 3 , 432.17 ( < 0.001 )
LR v.s. Model-2 χ d f = 2 2 = 2 , 818.84 ( < 0.001 )